Tristan Low
MSt candidate · Global and Imperial History · University of Oxford, Brasenose College
I am a graduate student at the University of Oxford reading for the MSt in Global and Imperial History, specialising in modern China and state capacity. My academic work sits within the longer history of how states navigate technological change and translate strategic assets into durable power.
Alongside my studies, I research and write on artificial intelligence and geopolitics, with a focus on the AI value chain — compute policy, AI sovereignty, and how states are positioning themselves within the emerging architecture of AI power. I am particularly interested in how middle powers respond to the structural advantages held by the United States and China, and what viable strategies exist for those outside the technological frontier.
I co-founded Cambrian, a research publication on AI strategy and geopolitical risk, and have contributed political risk analysis on the Chinese AI ecosystem, industrial policy, and digital development in Southeast Asia and Africa. I am also a Fellow of the Centre for Reducing Suffering, where I have researched how AI misalignment could give rise to large-scale catastrophic risk.
Work
Co-Founder
A research publication on AI strategy, geopolitics, and the AI value chain. Research has covered sovereign compute policy, US–China AI industrial strategy, and China's expanding role as a digital development partner in Southeast Asia and Africa. Grew to 173% subscriber growth in 90 days from launch.
Political Risk Analyst
Authored macro-level reports on the Chinese AI ecosystem, examining state-led investment hubs and regulatory design. Researched China's digital development partnerships in Africa and Southeast Asia, modelling how AI diffusion creates new dependencies and challenges for Western containment strategies.
Fellow
Researched how AI misalignment and emerging technologies could give rise to large-scale suffering through S-risk scenarios.
Research Intern
Built quantitative valuation models (DCF, comparables) linking financial performance to compute-availability constraints under US export controls. Produced an analysis of Tencent's strategic positioning in China's digital economy, focusing on its pivot toward B2B cloud and AI integration.
Research Interests
Compute Policy
How GPU infrastructure shapes geopolitical leverage, and the limits of domestic compute strategies for middle powers.
AI Sovereignty
Reframing sovereignty through strategic interdependence — Singapore and the UK as comparative cases.
US–China AI Competition
State-directed versus market-led scaling, export controls, and the contest for frontier and diffusion superiority.
Digital Development & Power
How Chinese AI partnerships in Southeast Asia and Africa reshape dependencies and challenge Western containment.
Writing
Education
2025 —
MSt, Global and Imperial History — University of Oxford
Specialising in modern China and state capacity. Awarded Additional Funding Grant, Brasenose College, for independent research.
Supervised by Prof Alan Strathern and Dr Eric Schluessel
2021 – 2024
BA, Ancient, Medieval and Modern History — Durham University
First Class Honours. Dissertation on Qing-Taiwanese relations in the 18th century. Modules in Modern China's Transformations and Empires and States in Early Modern Asia.
Supervised by Dr Sare Aricanli